Today’s ABS release of new housing commencements and completions for the first quarter of the National Housing Accord period has confirmed industry’s worst fears; that we have started with a whimper on the journey to meet our 5-year Housing Accord targets.
“House completions continue to track well below what is required to reach our target. Without a rapid course correction more people than ever before will be locked out of a home,” said Stuart Ayres CEO, Urban Development Institute of Australia NSW (UDIA).
In the 12 months to September 2024, NSW completed 45,200 dwellings. This reflects a 5% decline over the last year and is 40% below the 75,600 needed each year to keep pace with the Accord. This also includes the lowest rolling annual completions of detached houses seen since March 2015, with just 22,700 houses completed across the state.
UDIA notes the Government is forecasting to deliver its Housing Accord targets for Greater Sydney through 151,650 homes that were already in planning at the time the Accord commenced, and 170,350 homes that are projected to be delivered under its new policy initiatives including the Transport Oriented Development (TOD) Program and Low and Mid Rise (LMR) Policies. However, UDIA’s recent research into these reforms confirmed they won’t deliver new homes in the first three years of the Accord period, if at all. UDIA’s analysis of today’s data confirms if housing completions continue at their current rate over the next 3 years, the state would need to deliver over 120,000 dwellings per year for the final two years of the Housing Accord for NSW to reach its targets, which is 64% higher than we have ever delivered in NSW.
“Expecting NSW to almost triple its completions is like asking it to climb Mount Everest three times over,” said Mr Ayres.
While the Housing Delivery Authority will provide a much needed pull through of homes that are already planned, it’s increasingly obvious the Government has put too much hope that 112,000 new low and mid-rise apartments will be delivered over the next five years. “Greenfield house and land packages remain in demand and more feasible to deliver than apartments in the current market. Not accelerating new greenfield developments in these economic conditions will mean further stagnation of housing supply,” said Mr Ayres.
The commencements data released today provide a sobering confirmation of this trajectory, with only 42,200 new starts across the state in the 12 months to September 2024. This year brings a clear choice; wait for an uptick in the apartment market, which everyone knows won’t eventuate, or take more bold action to support other types of housing which are significantly more feasible and can be delivered quickly.
Source ABS, UDIA NSW
Media Enquiries: Deanna Lane, Director of Media & Communications UDIA NSW and National dlane@udiansw.com.au 0416 295 898